There has been many guesses about who the traitor could be, and Oda himself has given us some clues and perhaps some red herrings to make us believe X or Y character could be the traitor.
Here, I will theory craft my 3 best picks, altho I believe one is less likely than the others, and I will also expose who, in my opinion, isn’t the rat.
1 – Shinobu
The Ninja itself! We’ve seen Shinobu throw shade at Law and his crewmates, pointing fingers that they could be leaking information. While it is possible, she didn’t present any proof, she only suspected them because they were outsiders and could be considered easy targets.
This is Rat Tactics 101. Make suspicion fall on someone else, and if that someone else seems to be aligned with the enemy, then gain some favour in the eyes of the good guys. Right now, Law seems to be aligned with the enemy, since he was forced to be captured and is current status is unknown.
But what reason could Shinobu have to switch sides and become an enemy spy? I got a few, altho partly unconfirmed in the manga … you could say they are just possibilities:
1 – She got left behind by the others. Not on purpose, but she could hold a grudge on this. She is constantly reminding others about her past beauty and seems to give a lot of importance to it. Now that she’s old and out of shape, and the others got to remain young, this could cause envy and bad blood.
2 – We know one of the ninjas of Orochi’s squad had a relationship or a crush on Shinobu. A lover on the other side could always be a motivation to succumb and give them information. And the fact that this ninja got off’d by Zoro could make her angry and revolted at the alliance. Love is always a motive.
3 – During the 20-ish years she was “alone”, she could have resented the others and start to lose hope on Oden’s crusade. She could even start to sympathise with Orochi’s cause and become more aligned with him. But when Kin’emon and the others returned, she got stuck between a rock and a hard place. She had to make a choice … or maybe even play along, while giving info to the dark side.
2 – Shutenmaru /Ashura Doji
The reluctant samurai bandit. I find this one to be a bit less probable than Shinobu, but still has his reasons. He was also one of the guys who was left behind, and tried to oppose Kaido and Orochi at first.
However, he failed, but was still recognised by Kaido as having great power. The King of Beasts himself wants Shutenmaru to join his cause, and Shutenmaru obviously hasn’t. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be Orochi’s informant …
Some reasons of why he could be Orochi’s spy are not totally confirmed in the manga, but there’s some clues that could be constructed from it:
1 – He failed and lost a lot of men when he grew tired of waiting and tried to oppose Kaido. Who’s to say he didn’t succumb and bend the knee then, only to turn into a bandit later?
2 – Related to the first point, he had no hope that they could face Kaido and win. Yet, after Yasue sacrifice, he joined. Maybe to honour his memory, yeah, but … did his hope for victory resurface? Or is he still negative about winning?
If he still thinks they are going to their doom, he could have struck a deal with Orochi and/or Kaido to give them information but spare his men and the people of Wano, and crush the rebellion once and for all. A truly Squardo moment, where he tries to spare the lives of his men for the head of the rebellion. After seeing so much suffering, I could see even a hardened warrior like Shutenmaru betray his previous master to save the lives of hundreds and thousands.
3 – Trafalgar Law
This list couldn’t be complete without the main suspect of the moment.
Luffy’s ally has always been a shady, planning and crafty mastermind. He lured Luffy into making an alliance with him in Punk Hazard by saying he wanted to take Kaido’s head, when later Sanji realised that Law intended to forfeit his life fighting against Doflamingo. Nothing mattered to him more than taking Doflamingo’s head, and he almost died for it.
Albeit thankful to Luffy for saving his life and help him accomplish his revenge, he could be playing both sides into clashing into one another to come up on top. After all, he never believed in his chances of winning, even if he recognises Luffy is very very lucky.
His reasons are very obvious and handfed to us by Oda, but bear with me:
1 – His nakama were captured. This is a pretty easy one … too easy.
2 – He got released by someone who betrayed Hawkins? Top suspect is X Drake.
3 – He could have gotten the new info through his own nakama.
This doesn’t mean he’s turned completely on Luffy. He could be playing both sides to maybe win some more allies (X Drake and Hawkins) while also feeding Orochi some info … good and bad.
There’s a saying that the best way to trick someone is with a bit of truth in the lie, so maybe Law is giving Orochi just that. A poisoned apple.
4 – Kyoshiro
He found the first card in Komurasaki and he could have gotten the new one through other means. He is the Littlefinger of Wano, he runs a geisha house, where men come and run their mouths off to beautiful women. He can get a lot of information this way, and maybe that’s the answer. That Orochi has a pretty good intel network. Like Big Mom had.
Now some who doesn’t make much sense on being the traitor:
1 – Kin’emon
The leader of the alliance and the one who’s been sweating tears and blood to make it come true. He could have easily disposed of Momonosuke and move on with it.
2 – Kanjuro and Raizo
Again, they have been standing by Kin’emons side. Raizo was even inside the jail for some time to release Luffy, so it would be pretty hard for him to relay information to the outside world. Kanjuro has been accompanying Kin’emon and Momonosuke for longer and could have just crushed the rebellion by drowning everyone while at sea, but instead chose to sacrifice himself in Dressrosa, being captured to let Kin’emon and Momonosuke escape. As far as we know, he gave no info regarding their mission to Doflamingo.
3 – Kawamatsu
Was at the prison. Couldn’t give info to anyone.
4 – Komurasaki /Hiyori
She would gain nothing from revealing that she’s alive to Orochi after she had angered him. Or maybe she would gain his pardon? Still highly unlikely since at the first time Orochi got info on the alliance’s plans, she knew nothing of it.
So, what’s your take? Share your thoughts!!
*Theory by Overhaul