Orochi has been the only one to take the prophecy seriously, and all his men have mocked him for it.
Orochi is proven to be the intelligent one here for being paranoid, but at the same time, paranoia is the consequence of extreme fear which is not necessarily proof of intelligence. While he does appear intelligent and is somewhat intelligent to give him due credit, as Yasu said, he’s a coward for the most part.
In the days prior to the Fire Festival, Orochi had ordered his men to destroy the bridges connecting the country’s regions in order to prevent the Kozuki alliance members from convening on Port Tokage. The funny thing here is since all access to Udon is blocked, the route to the Flower Capital from all regions are open meaning people can get to the Flower Capital.
The most important panel here regarding his perception of the situation is this:
- Orochi’s source has remained anonymous.
- Orochi only believes his source now because of the consistency of the reports.
- He even claimed he’s not seen the 9 Scabbards yet, even he would find it hard to believe it, so he’s more or less acting on paranoia.
- In other words, the source has gained the trust of Orochi.
Before getting to my conclusion, we’ve learnt certain things about the leak:
- He just claimed there were 4,000 people.
- He never actually killed or imprisoned these 4,000 people.
- He never actually gave him proof the 9 scabbards were alive which was the most important thing.
Looking at the situation, Orochi has full confidence that he’s nipped any chance of an advance. He believes that now all access is blocked as a preemptive move, he’s dropped his guard COMPLETELY. He’s at his most vulnerable now.
It’s because his men don’t believe him that the best he can do is destroy their route to Udon, he can’t actually send a force to fight them because there’s no evidence of an actual force.
In essence, the leak was only giving him reason to drop his guard completely (false confidence) and the reality is this as I predict:
- The 9 Scabbards will go to Onigashima because of their fealty to Oden… Orochi underestimated this.
- The 4,000 are still alive, Orochi couldn’t actually kill them because no one believes him.
What will likely happen now is… Just entertain for a moment that what if Kyoshiro is Denjiro and, and he’s been in contact with someone from the Scabbards? Things couldn’t be better.
- The 4,000 and the Straw Hats will head over to the Flower Capital and make their way to Onigashima.
- While in the capital, they will free the prisoners at Rasetsu.
Orochi is completely drunk, the alliance will completely take Onigashima by surprise by the looks of things.
What we’ve more or less confirmed is that the leak is only leaking information to fool Orochi, not to sabotage the alliance. If saboteur was really intending to destroy the alliance, all he need do is reveal Momonosuke’s location and the scabbards, and Orochi would have ended the entire scheme before Yasu got involved.
As for why Kozuki clan closed the border, I’d guess it’s something that was determined like Noah, until the promised person appeared to fulfil the prophecy, I guess they were ordered not to open borders. Oden may have thought Roger was that person whereas I guess it was all in preparation for Luffy to fulfil it.
*Theory by HPsyche