In the lastest chapter Basil Hawkins predicts that the chance of a certain man surviving up to the next day is 1%.
When Hawkins said that the probability of a certain man surviving is 1%, I immediately thought that he was talking about Luffy. I think after this, Drake wanted to stay undercover and not join the Alliance of Luffy because why would he join someone who has 1% chance of surviving? However circumstances changed and X-Drake had no other option but to join Luffy.
After hearing Coby’s praise about Luffy, Drake began to have hope for Luffy even when Luffy has 1% of survival. Also Hawkins would have joined Luffy if he saw Luffy having high percentage of winning. So Hawkins probably wants to secure his position in the crew and stay living.
If it wasn’t Luffy the man Hawkins was talking about then why did Drake hesitate to join Luffy? Why did he say it was the end for him after getting exposed? Drake still has the fear of getting killed because his percentage of dying is 99% since he is behind Luffy. If Luffy dies he dies.
For those who argue that Luffy’s chance of survival was already taken until the end of the month, well 19% was at the time when he only arrived, but the data is consistently changing so Hawkins needs to make an update on the situation and with that the probability of Luffy surviving is changing too. This is why Hawkins is constantly looking at his cards, checking the constant upbeat based on current data.
For example in Marineford Hawkins was constantly updating the data based on the events that were happening, Hawkins specifically says “no matter how many times I check, it never comes out to be Zero” Hawkins is doing the same here.
Hawkins tells Drake about 1% survival ability, but when Who’s Who comes and sets his trap, Hawkins’ face changes. I’d say that the data changed and Hawkins got surprised of what he saw in his cards.
*Theory by Kuni samurai / Master Of Haki
